12/20/05 - Broadband will continue to be adopted at a rapid rate, and ultimately, reach levels of penetration comparable to other popular consumer electronics. Higher broadband speeds will also increase dramatically. By 2010, over 10% of U.S. households will likely subscribe to at least 24 Mb/s service, and by 2015 penetration should exceed 50%. Internet protocol video (IP video), especially high- definition (HD) IP video, is a key driver for higher data rates. This 12-page analyst paper by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., president of TFI, provides analyses and forecasts for each.

According to Dr. Vanston, "Both Moore's Law and the move to IP video are driving an increase in data rates for broadband, and with entertainment, voice, and information all being delivered efficiently over Internet connections, near ubiquity is almost inevitable. The ability to provision very high data rates, reliably, economically, and universally, will be the key to carrier competitiveness in the future." 

The paper is priced at $199. More information is available at . The material in this paper is adapted from TFI's report "Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services." The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, SBC, Sprint, and Verizon.

Two graphs from the paper are available on TFI's website:

• Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, .
• Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video, .

Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally- recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. Dr. Vanston's views on telecom trends have also been cited in many major publications including "Telephony," "America's Network," and "Lightwave."